The current CropWatch bulletin describes worldwide crop conditions and food production as appraised by data up to the end of January 2024. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing agroclimatic conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones on all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that comprise at least 80% of production and exports (the "core countries"), while Chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of main crop producing and exporting countries where major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat, and soybean) are harvested this year or still in the field. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters from October 2023 to January 2024.

Agroclimatic conditions

Temperatures keep rising at an alarming rate. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Union, as well as reports from the National and Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America, 2023 was a record-setting year when it comes to global warming: Earth’s global surface air temperatures was 1.48ºC warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level. It was 0.17º C warmer than the previous record, set in 2016. Several other records were broken as well: Close to 50% of the days were warmer than the 1850-1900 level, and two days in November were, for the first time, more than 2°C warmer.

Global warming affects not only temperatures but precipitation patterns as well. 2023 saw record-breaking temperatures and a prolonged drought in the Amazon. The World Weather Attribution project has concluded that human-caused global warming played a significantly more significant role than El Niño in intensifying the 2023 Amazon drought. Water levels in the Amazon River were never as low in 120 years of record keeping. In Southern Africa, the start of the rainy season was delayed. In January, when precipitation usually is at its peak, rainfall virtually stopped in Angola, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Malawi and most of Mozambique. Above-average precipitation in a belt spanning from Western Europe across the northern reaches of Central Asia to East Asia is setting favorable conditions for the spring green-up of winter cereals and sowing of the summer crops, which will start in April.

Global crop production situation

In the first quarter of 2024, the crop production index (CPI) fell further to 0.91, continuing the downward trend observed in previous years and suggesting a cautious outlook for global crop production. However, the decline in the CPI also coincides with the off-season for crop production in the Northern Hemisphere. Extensive snowfall in late 2023 and early 2024 may have exacerbated the negative assessment, partly based on satellite images. 

Maize: This report covers the maize production for eight major maize-producing countries, including the second and third largest maize exporters, Brazil and Argentina. Favorable agroclimatic conditions in Argentina contributed to an increase in maize planting area and yield, resulting in a production of 64.29 million tonnes, indicating an increase of 29.4% over last year. Brazil’s first and second maize crops have been affected by drought conditions: Production is estimated at 21.90 million tonnes for the first season maize, a reduction of 1.2%. The second-season maize crop is forecasted to decline by 3.1%. The resulting combined national maize production is 97.58 million tonnes. Due to the El Niño, several countries in Southern Africa are experiencing severe droughts, with South Africa being the most severely affected. In its primary maize-producing regions, rainfall is approximately 39% below average, leading to a decline in maize production to 11.57 million tonnes, a decrease of 5.2%. Maize production is forecasted to decline by 1.3% in Mozambique and by 4.6% in Zambia. In Kenya, maize production is set to increase by 17.5% due to more abundant rainfall. In the northern maize-producing regions of Mexico, the drought conditions caused a decrease in the area planted, and its total maize production is expected to decrease by 10.0%. In India, Bangladesh, and Southeast Asia, conditions for maize production were favorable.

Rice: Most Southeast Asian countries exhibited relatively small variations in rice production. Notably, Cambodia's dry-season rice production has shown a recovery, reaching a total production of 10.65 million tonnes, representing an increase of 3.2%. It is the highest among Southeast Asian countries. Additionally, Sri Lanka and Thailand benefitted from favorable agroclimatic conditions and government support for fertilizer purchases in Sri Lanka's case. This resulted in increases of 2.9% in Sri Lanka and 2.4% in Thailand. Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam show rice production similar to those in 2023, with variations all below 1%. Brazil and Argentina witness substantial increases in rice yield and planting area, resulting in a total rice production growth of 8.0% and 17.8%, respectively.

Wheat: CropWatch estimates a slight decrease in wheat planting area in Pakistan, leading to a decline of 2.4% in wheat production, estimated at 24.50 million tonnes. In India, the primary wheat-producing regions experienced lower radiation, resulting in a total production that is 1.5% below last year, at 96.13 million tonnes.  Morocco faces severe drought in its wheat-producing regions, leading to a decrease by 39.5% to 4.20 million tonnes, the lowest production in nearly a decade.  Excessive rainfall in northern France and Germany prevented planting in some fields. In Russia, there was a delay in winter crop sowing and germination due to dry soil conditions caused by a precipitation deficit in the Caucasus and Volga regions. In contrast, the Central and Central Black Soil regions had excessive rainfall. In the USA, rainfall was favorable for the Southern Plains, its main winter wheat production region. Conditions for winter wheat production have been normal in China. Above-average rainfall from Western Europe to Eastern China has been creating relatively favorable soil moisture conditions for the spring green-up period of winter wheat and the planting of spring wheat.

Soybean: CropWatch estimates a slight reduction in soybean production in Brazil due to the late start of the rainy season and the precipitation deficit. The soybean planting area decreased by 2.0% and yield by 1.6%. The total soybean production is projected to be 102.85 million tonnes, a decline of 3.5%. In Argentina, the favorable agroclimatic conditions led to a yield increase of 27.1% compared to the severe drought of 2022-2023. Remote sensing monitoring indicates an increase of 11.4% in the soybean planting area. Consequently, the national soybean production is expected to rebound with a substantial increase of 41.6%, reaching 59.48 million tonnes. In Southern Africa, drought conditions negatively impacted production in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and southern Malawi. In Bangladesh, India, and Southeast Asia, conditions were average.